Cancellations and Time-to-Foreclose increase year-over-year
Discovery Bay, CA, June 15, 2010 - ForeclosureRadar (www.foreclosureradar.com), the only website that tracks every California foreclosure and provides daily auction updates, issued its monthly California Foreclosure Report for for May 2010. Foreclosure filings, outcomes and inventories dropped across the board
from April to May. Foreclosure filings also declined substantially year-over-year with Notice of Default filings
down 43.3 percent and Notice of Trustee Sale filings down 35.8 percent. The only significant increases from
the prior year were Cancellations, up 141.3 percent, Sales to 3rd Parties, typically investors, up 75.4
percent, and Time-to-Foreclose, up 30.5 percent from May 2009.
"Given the staggering number of delinquent home loans, foreclosure activity should be rising not falling as
we found again this month" says Sean O'Toole, Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. "We have
recently witnessed a number of Cancellations where the owners have vacated the property and are clearly
not working to modify their loan or complete a short sale. The most telling statistic that we present today
may be that it takes lenders two months longer to foreclose then it did a year ago."
Foreclosure Filings
Notice of Default |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -17.25% |
-43.34% |
Notice of Trustee Sale |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -11.88% |
-35.78% |
Notice of Default filings are the first step in the foreclosure process. Notice of Trustee Sale filings set the
date and time of auction and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale.
| 8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
10-Apr |
10-May |
| 43974 | 40580 | 49799 | 58623 | 47337 | 42203 | 47093 | 47530 | 37063 | 38175 | 36534 | 30478 | 27200 | 25904 | 31309 | 33139 | 28897 | 23911 |
| 28449 | 24890 | 21147 | 34559 | 31556 | 43355 | 30711 | 40757 | 34224 | 33112 | 38558 | 28170 | 28475 | 27220 | 28501 | 34071 | 31594 | 27841 |
Foreclosure Outcomes
Back to Bank (REO) |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -5.75% |
-13.17% |
Cancellations |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -6.28% |
141.27% |
Sold to 3rd Party |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -6.73% |
75.44% |
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
Cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal
requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale,
the Bank will place the opening bid. If a 3rd party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening
bid, the property will be Sold to 3rd Party; if not, it will go Back to Bank and become part of that bank's REO
inventory.
| 8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
10-Apr |
10-May |
| 15608 | 14533 | 16419 | 9201 | 12145 | 15864 | 19713 | 14632 | 14367 | 13155 | 16018 | 14165 | 12471 | 13943 | 11983 | 15365 | 14615 | 13775 |
| 6445 | 6717 | 6904 | 6352 | 6707 | 7162 | 8674 | 10818 | 10004 | 8660 | 8757 | 10487 | 13287 | 13859 | 13806 | 16520 | 18437 | 17280 |
| 833 | 893 | 1266 | 1094 | 1653 | 2305 | 2694 | 2691 | 3285 | 3411 | 3960 | 3683 | 2629 | 3707 | 3631 | 4031 | 4336 | 4044 |
Foreclosure Inventories
Preforeclosure |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -5.67% |
-17.30% |
Scheduled for Sale |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -3.97% |
18.28% |
Bank Owned (REO) |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -2.26% |
-18.37% |
Preforeclosure inventory is an estimate of the number of properties that have had a Notice of Default filed
against the property, but have not yet been Scheduled for Sale. The Scheduled for Sale inventory indicates
those properties that have had a Notice of Trustee Sale filed, but have not yet been sold or had the sale
cancelled. The Bank Owned (REO) inventory indicates the number of properties that have been sold Back to
Bank at the trustee sale, and which the bank has not yet resold to another party.
| 8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
10-Apr |
10-May |
| 112078 | 130550 | 159215 | 179412 | 185603 | 174243 | 186060 | 175283 | 171841 | 169860 | 154905 | 157288 | 146941 | 152322 | 140126 | 157768 | 152770 | 144105 |
| 67841 | 69374 | 64177 | 82390 | 92002 | 111824 | 113141 | 124874 | 131300 | 140382 | 149456 | 151573 | 147570 | 145977 | 145260 | 141669 | 137741 | 132269 |
| 141176 | 137331 | 135488 | 122901 | 112792 | 107762 | 106139 | 100206 | 98829 | 95479 | 93926 | 93595 | 89119 | 90551 | 89529 | 90065 | 89998 | 87964 |
Foreclosure Discounting
Foreclosure discounting compares the winning Bid Amount of properties sold at trustee sale to both the
outstanding Loan Amount, and the current Market Value. Banks place an opening bid for each property, and
if a 3rd Party does not make a higher bid the property will be sold Back to Bank (REO) for the opening bid
amount. While 3rd Party bids are higher than the opening bid, properties Sold to 3rd Parties typically have
lower opening bids to start with and therefore deeper discounts to both Loan Amount and Market Value.
Foreclosure Timeframes
Time to Foreclosure |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -1.67% |
30.51% |
Time to Resell - Bank |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 2.02% |
5.00% |
Time to Resell - 3rd |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 0.62% |
-10.93% |
Time to Foreclose is the total time from the filing of the Notice of Default to the sale of the property at
trustee sale, and reflects those properties sold in the month indicated. Time to Resell reflects how long it
takes banks and 3rd parties to resell the properties they take back or purchase at trustee sale.
| 8-Nov |
8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
10-Apr |
| 165 | 192 | 198 | 176 | 171 | 180 | 173 | 187 | 185 | 191 | 195 | 198 | 222 | 229 | 224 | 225 | 239 | 235 |
| 206 | 218 | 223 | 231 | 234 | 240 | 244 | 238 | 228 | 220 | 219 | 220 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 232 | 247 | 252 |
| 187 | 193 | 186 | 214 | 196 | 183 | 168 | 146 | 147 | 141 | 131 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 150 | 153 | 162 | 163 |
Foreclosure Activity By County
| |
Notice of Default |
Notice of Trustee Sale |
Back to Bank (REO) |
Sold to 3rd Party |
Comments
good material of foreclosure sale
I believe a 16.7% discount from market value to 3rd party bidders is indicative of unsophisticated buyers at auction. That is not a high enough margin to make a profit, especially considering the costs of sale, declining market conditions, poor economy, bankrupt state government, 95% of financing dependent on government kool-aid and the new phenomenon of people gutting homes on the way out leaving a mess for the investor. Back in the 80s, you were considered nuts if you bought with anything less than a 25% discount and those markets were healthy. These bidders will be washed out in the next inevitable downleg.
Keep in mind they they may be purchasing for personal use or as a buy and hold. We have seen some very large investors buying and holding now that there is the possibility of positive cash flow.
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