Despite Jump in Sales, Foreclosure Delays Remain at Record Levels
Discovery Bay, CA, April 13, 2010 - ForeclosureRadar (www.foreclosureradar.com), the only website that tracks every California foreclosure and provides daily auction updates, issued its monthly California Foreclosure Report for for March 2010. Foreclosure sales increased 92.3 percent from the prior year, when
most major lenders had voluntary moratoriums in place while awaiting the implementation of the
Administration's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). Foreclosure sales increased 24.2 percent
from February, with 79.2 percent of those going Back to Bank and the remainder Sold to 3rd Parties,
primarily investors.
"Despite efforts to promote foreclosure alternatives like loan modifications and short sales, the simple reality
is that there isn't a program for everyone" says Sean O'Toole, Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com.
"Unravelling trillions in excess debt will take time, and foreclosure is part of the solution, not the problem."
Foreclosure Filings
Notice of Default |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 3.75% |
-44.59% |
Notice of Trustee Sale |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 17.50% |
-3.10% |
Notice of Default filings dropped substantially in March from the prior year. Last year, filings reached record
levels when lenders caught up on a backlog of filings after delays caused by new notice requirements
introduced in California Senate Bill 1137.
| 8-Oct |
8-Nov |
8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
| 17361 | 21857 | 43974 | 40580 | 49799 | 58623 | 47337 | 42203 | 47093 | 47530 | 37063 | 38175 | 36534 | 30478 | 27200 | 25904 | 31309 | 32484 |
| 26402 | 28468 | 28449 | 24890 | 21147 | 34559 | 31556 | 43355 | 30711 | 40757 | 34224 | 33112 | 38558 | 28170 | 28475 | 27220 | 28501 | 33489 |
Foreclosure Outcomes
Back to Bank (REO) |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 28.14% |
66.33% |
Cancellations |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 20.21% |
159.97% |
Sold to 3rd Party |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 11.04% |
266.00% |
3rd Party purchases at foreclosure sales hit a new record in March, crossing 4,000 properties for the first
time with the combined purchases totaling more than $840 Million. The increase in cancellations appears to
be primarily driven by filing errors, as evidenced by an early cancellation or by statutory requirement as
evidenced by the sale being postponed beyond the maximum time allowed under law. Still more than half of
the 16,513 cancellations occurred mid-foreclosure indicating a likely loan modification or short sale.
| 8-Oct |
8-Nov |
8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
| 13296 | 15267 | 15608 | 14533 | 16419 | 9201 | 12145 | 15864 | 19713 | 14632 | 14367 | 13155 | 16018 | 14165 | 12471 | 13943 | 11943 | 15304 |
| 11281 | 8302 | 6445 | 6717 | 6904 | 6352 | 6707 | 7162 | 8674 | 10818 | 10004 | 8660 | 8757 | 10487 | 13287 | 13859 | 13737 | 16513 |
| 825 | 952 | 833 | 893 | 1266 | 1094 | 1653 | 2305 | 2694 | 2691 | 3285 | 3411 | 3960 | 3683 | 2629 | 3707 | 3606 | 4004 |
Foreclosure Inventories
Preforeclosure |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 12.59% |
12.06% |
Scheduled for Sale |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -2.47% |
71.95% |
Bank Owned (REO) |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| -1.36% |
-26.52% |
Despite the increase in Notice of Default filings in February, our estimated number of properties in Preforeclosure dropped 8.0 percent due to the relatively high number of Notice of Trustee Sale filings. Properties exiting the foreclosure process nearly matched the number of new Notice of Trustee Sale filings,
leaving the number of properties Scheduled for Sale in February flat compared to January. Year-over-year, the increase in properties Scheduled for Sale is a dramatic 126.3 percent, as more and more homeowners have found themselves on the brink of foreclosure. Banks continue to resell their Bank Owned (REO) property in a timely manner, with their inventories also flat from January to February.
| 8-Oct |
8-Nov |
8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
| 114067 | 96534 | 112078 | 130550 | 159215 | 179412 | 185603 | 174243 | 186060 | 175283 | 171841 | 169860 | 154905 | 157288 | 146941 | 152322 | 140126 | 157768 |
| 59695 | 64237 | 67841 | 69374 | 64177 | 82390 | 92002 | 111824 | 113141 | 124874 | 131300 | 140382 | 149456 | 151573 | 147570 | 145977 | 145260 | 141669 |
| 148814 | 147090 | 141176 | 137331 | 135488 | 122901 | 112792 | 107762 | 106139 | 100206 | 98829 | 95479 | 93926 | 93595 | 89119 | 90510 | 91550 | 90302 |
Foreclosure Discounting
The courthouse steps remain highly competitive with discounts to market value dropping from 17.5 percent in January to 15.2 percent in February. Despite fewer foreclosure sales overall in February, as well as smaller discounts due to competitive bidding, 3rd party investors purchased more foreclosures, at 23.2 percent,
than at any other time since we began tracking trustee sales in September 2006.
Foreclosure Timeframes
Time to Foreclosure |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 0.45% |
27.91% |
Time to Resell - Bank |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 3.57% |
0.43% |
Time to Resell - 3rd |
| Prior Month |
Prior Year |
| 2.00% |
-28.50% |
Foreclosure timeframes continued to increase slightly across the board, as banks continue to delay
foreclosure, and slowing home sales increase Time to Resell. Time to Foreclose is likely to increase further
in coming months, as the time to file a Notice of Trustee Sale has increased from 142 days to 188 days this
month, a delay which will show up in the Time to Foreclose statistics as those properties are sold in coming
months.
| 8-Oct |
8-Nov |
8-Dec |
9-Jan |
9-Feb |
9-Mar |
9-Apr |
9-May |
9-Jun |
9-Jul |
9-Aug |
9-Sep |
9-Oct |
9-Nov |
9-Dec |
10-Jan |
10-Feb |
10-Mar |
| 169 | 163 | 165 | 192 | 198 | 176 | 171 | 180 | 173 | 187 | 185 | 191 | 195 | 198 | 222 | 229 | 224 | 225 |
| 192 | 195 | 206 | 218 | 223 | 231 | 234 | 240 | 244 | 238 | 228 | 220 | 219 | 220 | 224 | 224 | 224 | 232 |
| 171 | 178 | 187 | 193 | 186 | 214 | 196 | 183 | 168 | 146 | 147 | 141 | 131 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 150 | 153 |
Foreclosure Activity By County
| |
Notice of Default |
Notice of Trustee Sale |
Back to Bank (REO) |
Sold to 3rd Party |
Comments
1) have you ever tried to correlate your data to the credit suisse mortgage reset chart? (e.g. here http://gregfielding.housingstorm.com/2010/03/02/new-credit-suisse-recast... )
granted, that chart is for the whole US, and there are other effects, like the government intervention programs that would shape the curve.
but just looking at their original chart (at the bottom of the post), taking 220 days to foreclosure (7 months) and maybe some time before that, from the reset to the default... it seems like we could just have passed the valley that was in the middle of 2009, and we'd be riding up the slope towards the end of 2009 now... and so on...
does that fit your CA data?
First, it is important to separate resets from recasts. Resets are when the interest rate resets to some market based index. With rates so low I don't really see resets becoming a huge issue. Recasts are when negative amortization loans hit the limit on the amount of negative amortization allowed. This is significant because you go from a payment that isn't enough to a payment that requires full interest, and principal, which can double or even triple payments overnight. The chart you link to above is of recasts, not resets.
Still I don't expect recasts to lead to a wave of foreclosures. The lenders that hold these loans realize borrowers can't handle the jump in payment, and would rather continue to get the neg am payment then take a huge loss. As such I've seen lenders proactively offer to modify these loans without so much as a missed payment.
2) If I understand correctly, you are saying that there is no shadow inventory because the number of notice of foreclosure is the same as the notices of trustree sale.
but what about the difference between the number of trustee sales and (back to bank + sold to 3rd party), e.t. in LA that's 7131 - (2487 + 798)= 3855, or 54%.. is that all cancellations (for all of CA it looks like cancellations are about 10% of notices, so that would leave a 40% gap?)? or could there be a rolling wave of __auction__ cancellations/postponements that works out to be a shadow inventory?
does your data help understand that?
Note that I only said there is no shadow inventory of "bank owned homes". We calculated this by looking at the number of foreclosure sales that went back to the bank, and subtracted those which were subsequently resold -- and shown as the Bank Owned (REO) inventory above. Note that 90,000 is about the right amount for banks to be holding based on how long it takes them to resell the properties after foreclosure.
Clearly there are a lot of properties in the foreclosure pipeline, and even more delinquencies that have not reached foreclosure. And if you look at time-to-foreclose properties are being stuck in this limbo longer and longer. Many now include those in the definition of shadow inventory as well.
Do you have more statistical data on San Bernardino County?
If you have a subscription to ForeclosureRadar.com you can access the Analysis Tools that allow you to prepare custom charts for San Bernardino County. If you have specific questions please feel free to contact support@foreclosureradar.com.
"The courthouse steps remain highly competitive with discounts to market value dropping from 17.5 percent in January to 15.2 percent in February."
Am I reading this correctly. Is this in essence the saving I would get by buying a foreclosure property over an identical property which hasnt been foreclosed?
If so, does anyone have historic values for this over time. more specifically i am looking for the highest (peak) value experienced in recent years.
Many Thanks to anyone who can help.
Regards
Stuart Flint
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