Foreclosure Sales Nearly Double from Prior Year

Despite Jump in Sales, Foreclosure Delays Remain at Record Levels

Discovery Bay, CA, April 13, 2010 - ForeclosureRadar (www.foreclosureradar.com), the only website that tracks every California foreclosure and provides daily auction updates, issued its monthly California Foreclosure Report for for March 2010. Foreclosure sales increased 92.3 percent from the prior year, when most major lenders had voluntary moratoriums in place while awaiting the implementation of the Administration's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). Foreclosure sales increased 24.2 percent from February, with 79.2 percent of those going Back to Bank and the remainder Sold to 3rd Parties, primarily investors.

"Despite efforts to promote foreclosure alternatives like loan modifications and short sales, the simple reality is that there isn't a program for everyone" says Sean O'Toole, Founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.com. "Unravelling trillions in excess debt will take time, and foreclosure is part of the solution, not the problem."

Foreclosure Filings

Notice of Default

Prior Month Prior Year
3.75% -44.59%

Notice of Trustee Sale

Prior Month Prior Year
17.50% -3.10%

Notice of Default filings dropped substantially in March from the prior year. Last year, filings reached record levels when lenders caught up on a backlog of filings after delays caused by new notice requirements introduced in California Senate Bill 1137.

1003 Foreclosure Filings
8-Oct 8-Nov 8-Dec 9-Jan 9-Feb 9-Mar 9-Apr 9-May 9-Jun 9-Jul 9-Aug 9-Sep 9-Oct 9-Nov 9-Dec 10-Jan 10-Feb 10-Mar
17361 21857 43974 40580 49799 58623 47337 42203 47093 47530 37063 38175 36534 30478 27200 25904 31309 32484
26402 28468 28449 24890 21147 34559 31556 43355 30711 40757 34224 33112 38558 28170 28475 27220 28501 33489

Foreclosure Outcomes

Back to Bank (REO)

Prior Month Prior Year
28.14% 66.33%

Cancellations

Prior Month Prior Year
20.21% 159.97%

Sold to 3rd Party

Prior Month Prior Year
11.04% 266.00%

3rd Party purchases at foreclosure sales hit a new record in March, crossing 4,000 properties for the first time with the combined purchases totaling more than $840 Million. The increase in cancellations appears to be primarily driven by filing errors, as evidenced by an early cancellation or by statutory requirement as evidenced by the sale being postponed beyond the maximum time allowed under law. Still more than half of the 16,513 cancellations occurred mid-foreclosure indicating a likely loan modification or short sale.

1003 Foreclosure Outcomes
8-Oct 8-Nov 8-Dec 9-Jan 9-Feb 9-Mar 9-Apr 9-May 9-Jun 9-Jul 9-Aug 9-Sep 9-Oct 9-Nov 9-Dec 10-Jan 10-Feb 10-Mar
13296 15267 15608 14533 16419 9201 12145 15864 19713 14632 14367 13155 16018 14165 12471 13943 11943 15304
11281 8302 6445 6717 6904 6352 6707 7162 8674 10818 10004 8660 8757 10487 13287 13859 13737 16513
825 952 833 893 1266 1094 1653 2305 2694 2691 3285 3411 3960 3683 2629 3707 3606 4004

Foreclosure Inventories

Preforeclosure

Prior Month Prior Year
12.59% 12.06%

Scheduled for Sale

Prior Month Prior Year
-2.47% 71.95%

Bank Owned (REO)

Prior Month Prior Year
-1.36% -26.52%

Despite the increase in Notice of Default filings in February, our estimated number of properties in Preforeclosure dropped 8.0 percent due to the relatively high number of Notice of Trustee Sale filings. Properties exiting the foreclosure process nearly matched the number of new Notice of Trustee Sale filings, leaving the number of properties Scheduled for Sale in February flat compared to January. Year-over-year, the increase in properties Scheduled for Sale is a dramatic 126.3 percent, as more and more homeowners have found themselves on the brink of foreclosure. Banks continue to resell their Bank Owned (REO) property in a timely manner, with their inventories also flat from January to February.

1003 Foreclosure Inventories
8-Oct 8-Nov 8-Dec 9-Jan 9-Feb 9-Mar 9-Apr 9-May 9-Jun 9-Jul 9-Aug 9-Sep 9-Oct 9-Nov 9-Dec 10-Jan 10-Feb 10-Mar
114067 96534 112078 130550 159215 179412 185603 174243 186060 175283 171841 169860 154905 157288 146941 152322 140126 157768
59695 64237 67841 69374 64177 82390 92002 111824 113141 124874 131300 140382 149456 151573 147570 145977 145260 141669
148814 147090 141176 137331 135488 122901 112792 107762 106139 100206 98829 95479 93926 93595 89119 90510 91550 90302

Foreclosure Discounting

1003 Foreclosure Discounting

The courthouse steps remain highly competitive with discounts to market value dropping from 17.5 percent in January to 15.2 percent in February. Despite fewer foreclosure sales overall in February, as well as smaller discounts due to competitive bidding, 3rd party investors purchased more foreclosures, at 23.2 percent, than at any other time since we began tracking trustee sales in September 2006.


Foreclosure Timeframes

Time to Foreclosure

Prior Month Prior Year
0.45% 27.91%

Time to Resell - Bank

Prior Month Prior Year
3.57% 0.43%

Time to Resell - 3rd

Prior Month Prior Year
2.00% -28.50%

Foreclosure timeframes continued to increase slightly across the board, as banks continue to delay foreclosure, and slowing home sales increase Time to Resell. Time to Foreclose is likely to increase further in coming months, as the time to file a Notice of Trustee Sale has increased from 142 days to 188 days this month, a delay which will show up in the Time to Foreclose statistics as those properties are sold in coming months.

1003 Foreclosure Timeframes
8-Oct 8-Nov 8-Dec 9-Jan 9-Feb 9-Mar 9-Apr 9-May 9-Jun 9-Jul 9-Aug 9-Sep 9-Oct 9-Nov 9-Dec 10-Jan 10-Feb 10-Mar
169 163 165 192 198 176 171 180 173 187 185 191 195 198 222 229 224 225
192 195 206 218 223 231 234 240 244 238 228 220 219 220 224 224 224 232
171 178 187 193 186 214 196 183 168 146 147 141 131 133 141 149 150 153

Foreclosure Activity By County

  Notice of Default Notice of Trustee Sale Back to Bank (REO) Sold to
3rd Party
1003 Foreclosure Activity By County

Comments

1) have you ever tried to correlate your data to the credit suisse mortgage reset chart? (e.g. here http://gregfielding.housingstorm.com/2010/03/02/new-credit-suisse-recast... )

granted, that chart is for the whole US, and there are other effects, like the government intervention programs that would shape the curve.

but just looking at their original chart (at the bottom of the post), taking 220 days to foreclosure (7 months) and maybe some time before that, from the reset to the default... it seems like we could just have passed the valley that was in the middle of 2009, and we'd be riding up the slope towards the end of 2009 now... and so on...

does that fit your CA data?

First, it is important to separate resets from recasts. Resets are when the interest rate resets to some market based index. With rates so low I don't really see resets becoming a huge issue. Recasts are when negative amortization loans hit the limit on the amount of negative amortization allowed. This is significant because you go from a payment that isn't enough to a payment that requires full interest, and principal, which can double or even triple payments overnight. The chart you link to above is of recasts, not resets.

Still I don't expect recasts to lead to a wave of foreclosures. The lenders that hold these loans realize borrowers can't handle the jump in payment, and would rather continue to get the neg am payment then take a huge loss. As such I've seen lenders proactively offer to modify these loans without so much as a missed payment.

2) If I understand correctly, you are saying that there is no shadow inventory because the number of notice of foreclosure is the same as the notices of trustree sale.
but what about the difference between the number of trustee sales and (back to bank + sold to 3rd party), e.t. in LA that's 7131 - (2487 + 798)= 3855, or 54%.. is that all cancellations (for all of CA it looks like cancellations are about 10% of notices, so that would leave a 40% gap?)? or could there be a rolling wave of __auction__ cancellations/postponements that works out to be a shadow inventory?

does your data help understand that?

Note that I only said there is no shadow inventory of "bank owned homes". We calculated this by looking at the number of foreclosure sales that went back to the bank, and subtracted those which were subsequently resold -- and shown as the Bank Owned (REO) inventory above. Note that 90,000 is about the right amount for banks to be holding based on how long it takes them to resell the properties after foreclosure.

Clearly there are a lot of properties in the foreclosure pipeline, and even more delinquencies that have not reached foreclosure. And if you look at time-to-foreclose properties are being stuck in this limbo longer and longer. Many now include those in the definition of shadow inventory as well.

Do you have more statistical data on San Bernardino County?

If you have a subscription to ForeclosureRadar.com you can access the Analysis Tools that allow you to prepare custom charts for San Bernardino County. If you have specific questions please feel free to contact support@foreclosureradar.com.

"The courthouse steps remain highly competitive with discounts to market value dropping from 17.5 percent in January to 15.2 percent in February."

Am I reading this correctly. Is this in essence the saving I would get by buying a foreclosure property over an identical property which hasnt been foreclosed?

If so, does anyone have historic values for this over time. more specifically i am looking for the highest (peak) value experienced in recent years.

Many Thanks to anyone who can help.

Regards

Stuart Flint

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options